davegodfrey: Marvin: ...and me with a terrible pain in all the diodes down my left hand side... (Marvin)
[personal profile] davegodfrey
The madness of one minority blaming another on the fact that an assorted bunch of Mormons, Christian Right-Wingers and other such people got Proposition 8 passed in California still goes on. Frankly it seems just nuts. I was willing to entertain the possibility that African-Amercian voters might have made up a large enough percentage of the population, turned out in large enough numbers and all voted in a large enough block that it might have outweighed all the nice white people all of whom must have voted No. Because white people can't be homophobic can they?

I think I'd better clean up the sarcasm before it infects the rest of the post.

It turns out that (as is so often the case in these things) the figures don't mean what you think they mean. Or indeed aren't actually true. Shanikka, over on the Daily Kos has an excellent post going through all the figures and handily debunking the various claims that have been made. I recommend you stop reading this now and go there. Seriously, its fantastic.

The CNN exit polls cited are pretty flawed. It doesn't count absentee or early voters, and picks counties at random. In a state like California where the majority of the counties are solid Republican, but as there are a few counties with much, much, bigger populations who collectively swing the state over to the Democrats this type of poll is not going help very much.

Basically there are 2.26m blacks, making up 6.2% of the population. Not all of these people are eligible to vote (many are under 18. convicted felons, or just aren't registered), so there's at most just over a million registered voters. Taking the highest levels of turnout into account, Shanikka estimates that at most 720,536 blacks made it to the polls.  Remember these figures are really rather overinflated to give people the benefit of the doubt. (Not that they deserve any quite frankly). This means that at most 504,000 Blacks voted for Prop 8 (if the 70/30 split is to be believed). Prop 8 is winning by about 510,000 votes. Even if African Americans had voted exactly in line with the other Prop 8 would still have passed.

Is homophobia common within the black community? Quite probably.
Is it more common than in other communties? I have no idea. Maybe it is. But blaming anyone other than the groups who go the damn proposition on the ballot isn't going to help anyone.

Date: 2008-11-11 02:50 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] maureenlycaon.livejournal.com
Fuck, gays are doing this?! *reads Kos article* Dear gods. They are. Ignorant fuckers!

Now, African-Americans as a group aren't entirely innocent. Those fuckwits at the clinic, as I was waiting to be seen? Most, including the ringleaders, were black. But I live in north Long Beach, which is a combination of lower-income blacks, whites, and Hispanics. Bitter lower-working-class whites, aging bikers -- the kind of people I know (and have almost daily contact with) who would back Prop. 8 just as gladly as the mob in the clinic. Actually, I darkly suspect that most of the people in my trailer park would.

I do not forgive them for voting for it. But, left to themselves, it's very unlikely they could have organized enough, or had enough money and influence, to get this abomination very far.

I know damned well who did, and I will not forgive or forget that, either.

It shocks hell out of me that anyone with brains in the gay community would let themselves be manipulated like this. Yeah, turn the gays against the blacks and make them fight each other, so the real offenders can get away scot-free . . . real bright, assholes. You're supposed to be smarter than that.

Date: 2008-11-11 04:05 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davegodfrey.livejournal.com
Proposition 8 only just passed. While its a shame that it did, the fact that the margin was so narrow is comforting- It could have been so much worse. I'm told the last time it was on the ballot the margin was something like 22% rather than 4%.

If the split in the polls represents the split over the whole of the African-American population then the only thing that the GLBTs should be doing is working out why their message didn't reach this sector of the community, but that the Mormons & co did.

Date: 2008-11-12 01:29 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] invadergaz.livejournal.com
The only minority that can be *blamed* are people with slightly conservative, "family" values, who wouldn't be bothered to vote normally, but where encouraged to vote by strong anti-Bush/anti-Republican/pro-Obama/pro-change sentiments.

To be honest, I don't think I'n in much of a position to judge how much active/explicit homophobia was required for that outcome;
mostly because I don't know ANYTHING about the average Californian's attitude towards Propositions(especially since I haven't spend any time living in a place that has them); even though I've certainly been aware of the efford that has been put into trying to prevent it from passing, I just don't know how active the support for the proposition was.
The only thing that I've heard(via web) in support was that Gov. Schwarzenegger was in support of the proposition, but his recent statements make that sound rather unlikely. Anyway, I haven't had much reliable information, so I'm happy to be educated..

Date: 2008-11-12 02:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] davegodfrey.livejournal.com
[livejournal.com profile] maureenlycaon above would be the person to ask about Californian attitudes to Propositions, as she lives there.

From what I hear the support for the proposition was well organised, well funded and ran a campaign based on the usual fears about "think of the children", "your church will be forced to marry them", "it'll be pets next", and that kind of bollocks. The Mormons and the Religious Wrong were primarily behind it.

It looks like Arnie's changed his mind on the matter- the article says he used to oppose it, then didn't care if it was legal, and now it is wants it to stay that way. Both Obama and Biden have said they do not favour same-sex marriage. (The Yes-On-8 lot used Obama quotes in their campaign literature). Whether the those two would actively oppose it I don't know. I'd like to think they'd allow states to make their own decisions, and wouldn't veto any national laws.

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