Nov. 11th, 2008

davegodfrey: Marvin: ...and me with a terrible pain in all the diodes down my left hand side... (Marvin)
The madness of one minority blaming another on the fact that an assorted bunch of Mormons, Christian Right-Wingers and other such people got Proposition 8 passed in California still goes on. Frankly it seems just nuts. I was willing to entertain the possibility that African-Amercian voters might have made up a large enough percentage of the population, turned out in large enough numbers and all voted in a large enough block that it might have outweighed all the nice white people all of whom must have voted No. Because white people can't be homophobic can they?

I think I'd better clean up the sarcasm before it infects the rest of the post.

It turns out that (as is so often the case in these things) the figures don't mean what you think they mean. Or indeed aren't actually true. Shanikka, over on the Daily Kos has an excellent post going through all the figures and handily debunking the various claims that have been made. I recommend you stop reading this now and go there. Seriously, its fantastic.

The CNN exit polls cited are pretty flawed. It doesn't count absentee or early voters, and picks counties at random. In a state like California where the majority of the counties are solid Republican, but as there are a few counties with much, much, bigger populations who collectively swing the state over to the Democrats this type of poll is not going help very much.

Basically there are 2.26m blacks, making up 6.2% of the population. Not all of these people are eligible to vote (many are under 18. convicted felons, or just aren't registered), so there's at most just over a million registered voters. Taking the highest levels of turnout into account, Shanikka estimates that at most 720,536 blacks made it to the polls.  Remember these figures are really rather overinflated to give people the benefit of the doubt. (Not that they deserve any quite frankly). This means that at most 504,000 Blacks voted for Prop 8 (if the 70/30 split is to be believed). Prop 8 is winning by about 510,000 votes. Even if African Americans had voted exactly in line with the other Prop 8 would still have passed.

Is homophobia common within the black community? Quite probably.
Is it more common than in other communties? I have no idea. Maybe it is. But blaming anyone other than the groups who go the damn proposition on the ballot isn't going to help anyone.


davegodfrey: South Park Me. (Default)
The Evil Atheist Your Mother Warned You About

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